NBA Playoffs 2019: Nuggets vs. Spurs odds, picks, Game 5 predictions from proven model on 84-57 run
LaMarcus Aldridge and the San Antonio Spurs will look to get back on track after dropping Game 4 at home, as they travel to Denver to take on Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on Tuesday. The two teams have alternated wins during the 2019 NBA Playoffs, with San Antonio taking Games 1 and 3 and Denver fighting to hold on to its home court advantage. A win in Game 4 was huge for the Nuggets, as two of the three possible remaining games in the series will take place in the Mile High City. Sportsbooks list the Nuggets as 5.5-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Nuggets odds, down from an open of 212. Before you make any Spurs vs. Nuggets picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 28 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated plays, returning more than $3,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 28 on a strong 84-57 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up. Now it has locked in on Spurs vs. Nuggets. We can tell you it's leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that very strong pick at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of what a mismatch this is on paper. In addition to ranking near the top of the league in cover rate (60.5 percent) at home, Denver ranks ahead of the Spurs in most important statistical categories. Denver was one of just four teams to rank in the top 12 in rebounding rate as well as both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Nuggets also boast the NBA's second-best assist-to-turnover ratio and the eighth-best scoring differential. The Nuggets dropped Game 1 because of uncharacteristically poor shooting (21.4 percent) from three. Even with shots not falling, they were in it until the final minute. Their shooting has corrected itself over the past three games, as Denver is a red-hot 47.6 percent from downtown during that time.
Given San Antonio's 19th-ranked defensive efficiency, it would be surprising to see Denver struggle offensively the way it did in Game 1, especially at the Pepsi Center, where the Nuggets averaged 114 points this season. But just because Denver has been lights-out on its home floor doesn't mean it'll cover the Nuggets vs. Spurs spread on Tuesday
The model is also well aware that the Spurs have held their own against Denver. They've won four of eight games, including a statement win at the Pepsi Center in Game 1. The Nuggets have had no answer for DeRozan, who is averaging over 23 points and seven rebounds on 49.3 percent shooting. Between DeRozan and Derrick White, San Antonio's guard play has been notably better than Denver's. White has stepped his game up in his first real taste of playoff basketball, averaging 19 points on 64 percent shooting. His 36-point outburst in Game 3 powered San Antonio to a victory, and his defense on Jamal Murray has been outstanding.
